The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his America is Back Rally?

Closed
Jul 9, 2026
Traded
$81K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 9, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
MAGA / Make America Great Again
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
MAGA / Make America Great Again
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fake News
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fake News
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hottest
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Invest / Invested / Investment
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Invest / Invested / Investment
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$985
Trade this on Kalshi
Trillion
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trillion
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
World Cup
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
World Cup
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dumbocrat / Dumacrat
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dumbocrat / Dumacrat
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Olympic / Olympics
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olympic / Olympics
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
First Term
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
First Term
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ballroom
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ballroom
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Transgender
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Transgender
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
America First
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Hussein Obama
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Hussein Obama
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gulf of America
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gulf of America
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • MAGA / Make America Great Again
  • Stock Market
  • Fake News

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump say during his America is Back Rally?". MAGA / Make America Great Again last traded at 89%. Next is Stock Market at 89%. $81K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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