The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his keynote address at Coast Guard Academy Commencement?

Closed
Jun 4, 2026
Traded
$15K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 4, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
250
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
250
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi
Border
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Border
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Kalshi
Drug / Fentanyl
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drug / Fentanyl
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$422
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Kalshi
Recruit / Recruiting / Recruitment
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Recruit / Recruiting / Recruitment
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Kalshi
Hottest
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Kalshi
Election
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Election
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
Fake News
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fake News
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$397
Trade this on Kalshi
Illegal Alien
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Illegal Alien
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
National Security
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
National Security
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrat
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
DEI / Woke
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
DEI / Woke
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Kalshi
Eight War
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eight War
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$213
Trade this on Kalshi
Sleepy Joe
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Kalshi
America First
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Transgender
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Transgender
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$284
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 250
  • Border
  • Drug / Fentanyl

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump say during his keynote address at Coast Guard Academy Commencement?". 250 last traded at 91%. Next is Border at 86%. $15K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 4, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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