The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his rally in Georgia?

Starts in 2 h 19 minKickoff
Traded
$90K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Democrat 5+ times 93.5%

Next is Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times at 90.5%. The venues differ most on Iran 5+ times (Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 50%), a 10-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democrat 5+ times
93.5%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 91.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5+ times
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5+ times
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
France / Paris
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
France / Paris
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Transgender 5+ times
76.5%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender 5+ times
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
Transgender
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Transgender
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Space / Moon
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Space / Moon
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Polymarket
Fish / Fisher / Fishing
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fish / Fisher / Fishing
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
SI / Super Intelligence
69.6%
Polymarket 70%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 68.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
Dividend / Stimulus
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend / Stimulus
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Veteran
62.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 57.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Veteran
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Veteran
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 47 more outcomes
Hottest
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Google
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$952
Trade this on Polymarket
Stock Market
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mar-a-Lago / Golf
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mar-a-Lago / Golf
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Save America Act
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Save America Act
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hormuz / Blockade
53.9%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Polymarket
Iran 5+ times
53.3%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iran 5+ times
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (5+ times)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 58¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 58¢.

Ass
53.1%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ass
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ass
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Polymarket
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$886
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia / UkraineArb
52.9%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 63%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 39¢ and selling on Polymarket at 70¢ nets 3100 bps before fees.

Hell 15+ times
51.4%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 55.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hell 15+ times
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Hell 15+ times
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Tariff 6+ times
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tariff 6+ times
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Polymarket
Transgender 7+ times
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender 7+ times
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Polymarket
Meat / Steak
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meat / Steak
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Supreme Court
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$709
Trade this on Kalshi
Keisha Lance Bottoms
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$838
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear (3+ times)
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear (3+ times)
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$778
Trade this on Kalshi
Right to Repair / Right to Fix
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Right to Repair / Right to Fix
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Polymarket
Gulf of America
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gulf of America
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$332
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Hussein Obama
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Hussein Obama
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sleepy Joe
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyundai
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyundai
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tax 33+ times
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tax 33+ times
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Data Center
32.1%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$913
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Polymarket
AI / Artificial IntelligenceArb
31.9%
Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 41.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$904
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 24¢ and selling on Polymarket at 41¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

Hormuz
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hormuz
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacksonville
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacksonville
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Made in America / American Made
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Made in America / American Made
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Drill Baby DrillArb
28.9%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 28¢ and selling on Polymarket at 30¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Event does not qualify
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
24.5%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Blockade
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blockade
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rigged Election
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rigged Election
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marjorie
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Kalshi
Fentanyl
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fentanyl
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Kalshi
Filibuster
16.8%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Deport / Deported / Deportation
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deport / Deported / Deportation
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud (3+ times)
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud (3+ times)
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$572
Trade this on Kalshi
America First
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$692
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
2.4%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Polymarket
Ceasefire
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
No Qualifying Event-
1.2%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$253
Trade this on Polymarket
Crypto / Bitcoin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Russia / Ukraine on Kalshi at 39¢, sell on Polymarket at 70¢ (3100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 22, 2026, 11:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 22, 2026, 11:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrat 5+ times
  • Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times
  • France / Paris

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Democrat 5+ times for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during his rally in Georgia?". Democrat 5+ times leads at 93.5%. Next is Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times at 90.5%. $90K has traded across 57 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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