The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa?

Starts in 3 h 13 minKickoff
Traded
$275K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Transgender 98%

Next is Save America Act at 97%. The venues differ most on Russia / Ukraine (Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 70%), a 2.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Transgender
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Transgender
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Save America Act
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Save America Act
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dividend / Stimulus
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend / Stimulus
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Estate Tax / Death Tax
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estate Tax / Death Tax
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hottest
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Healthcare
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healthcare
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sleepy Joe
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steel
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steel
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
France / Paris
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
France / Paris
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 43 more outcomes
E15
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
E15
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear (3+ times)
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear (3+ times)
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Hussein Obama
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Hussein Obama
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Supreme Court
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ethanol
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ethanol
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia / Ukraine
69.4%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 70%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Iran (5+ times)
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (5+ times)
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
SI / Super Intelligence
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$668
Trade this on Polymarket
Veteran
66.5%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Veteran
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$417
Trade this on Polymarket
Made in America / American Made
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Made in America / American Made
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Meat / Steak
65%
Polymarket 65%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meat / Steak
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Corn
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corn
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hormuz / Blockade
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$537
Trade this on Polymarket
Ass
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ass
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Polymarket
Trump Account
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump Account
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Hell 15+ times
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hell 15+ times
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
Transgender 7+ times
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender 7+ times
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Polymarket
Gulf of America
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gulf of America
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Soybean
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Soybean
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Google
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$952
Trade this on Polymarket
Space Force
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Space Force
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Hormuz
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hormuz
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 40%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Drill Baby Drill
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Right to Repair / Right to Fix
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Right to Repair / Right to Fix
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Polymarket
Blockade
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blockade
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$751
Trade this on Polymarket
America First
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tax 33+ times
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tax 33+ times
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$308
Trade this on Polymarket
Fentanyl
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fentanyl
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Kalshi
Deport / Deported / Deportation
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deport / Deported / Deportation
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud (3+ times)
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud (3+ times)
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Filibuster
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Ceasefire
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket
Crypto / Bitcoin
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
No Qualifying Event-
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Polymarket
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 22, 2026, 11:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 5, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes Oct 22, 2026, 11:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 5, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Transgender
  • Save America Act
  • Dividend / Stimulus

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Transgender for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa?". Transgender leads at 98%. Next is Save America Act at 97%. $275K has traded across 53 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets