The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his rally in Lubbock, Texas?

Starts in 6 hKickoff
Traded
$39K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Democrat 5+ times 97.3%

Next is Save America Act at 95%. The venues differ most on Drill Baby Drill (Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 67%), a 45-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democrat 5+ times
97.3%
Polymarket 97.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5+ times
Last price
97.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
96.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Save America Act
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Save America Act
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times
90%
Polymarket 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Crime / Criminal 5+ times
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Crime / Criminal 5+ times
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times
87%
Polymarket 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Sleepy Joe
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$920
Trade this on Kalshi
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
ICE
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
ICE
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear (3+ times)
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear (3+ times)
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 44 more outcomes
Tariff (3+ times)
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff (3+ times)
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Kalshi
Supreme Court
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Transgender 5+ times
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender 5+ times
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Barack Hussein Obama
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Hussein Obama
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$811
Trade this on Kalshi
Sanctuary
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sanctuary
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia / UkraineArb
74.6%
Polymarket 82%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$318
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$909
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 72¢ and selling on Polymarket at 81¢ nets 900 bps before fees.

France
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
France
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$885
Trade this on Kalshi
Space / Moon
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Space / Moon
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Polymarket
Hormuz / Blockade
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$756
Trade this on Polymarket
Gulf of America
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gulf of America
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
Mar-a-Lago / Golf
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mar-a-Lago / Golf
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Hormuz
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hormuz
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Kalshi
Fish / Fisher / Fishing
63.5%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fish / Fisher / Fishing
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Polymarket
Iran 5+ timesArb
61.7%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iran 5+ times
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$480
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (5+ times)
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 59¢ and selling on Polymarket at 76¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

America First
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
SI / Super Intelligence
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Polymarket
Hell 15+ times
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hell 15+ times
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$478
Trade this on Polymarket
Drill Baby DrillArb
55.9%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 23¢ and selling on Kalshi at 65¢ nets 4200 bps before fees.

Tariff 6+ times
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tariff 6+ times
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Polymarket
Ass
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ass
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Blockade
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blockade
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$95
Trade this on Kalshi
Made in America / American Made
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Made in America / American Made
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
Deport / Deported / Deportation
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deport / Deported / Deportation
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Veteran
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Veteran
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Polymarket
Windmill
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Windmill
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial IntelligenceArb
30.8%
Polymarket 32%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 31¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Data CenterArb
28.1%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$799
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 24¢ and selling on Kalshi at 26¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Fentanyl
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fentanyl
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Social Security (5+ times)
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Social Security (5+ times)
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump Account
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump Account
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacksonville
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacksonville
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Electricity
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Electricity
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud (3+ times)
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud (3+ times)
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
Filibuster
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Polymarket
Palestine / Palestinian
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Palestine / Palestinian
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Ceasefire
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$546
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$359
Trade this on Polymarket
No Qualifying Event-
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$777
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Drill Baby Drill on Polymarket at 23¢, sell on Kalshi at 65¢ (4200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 23, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 10, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 23, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 10, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrat 5+ times
  • Save America Act
  • Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Democrat 5+ times for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during his rally in Lubbock, Texas?". Democrat 5+ times leads at 97.3%. Next is Save America Act at 95%. $39K has traded across 54 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets