The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his rally in Michigan?

Starts in 9 hKickoff
Traded
$90K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

El-Sayed 98%

Next is Democrat 5+ times at 96.2%. The venues differ most on Russia / Ukraine (Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 69%), a 11-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
El-Sayed
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
El-Sayed
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5+ times
96.2%
Polymarket 96.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5+ times
Last price
96.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
95.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Communist / Communism
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Communist / Communism
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dividend / Stimulus
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend / Stimulus
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$528
Trade this on Kalshi
Save America Act
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Save America Act
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$597
Trade this on Kalshi
Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Kalshi
Hottest
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$509
Trade this on Kalshi
Canada / Canadian
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Canada / Canadian
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 42 more outcomes
Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times
87%
Polymarket 87%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Crime / Criminal 5+ times
86.5%
Polymarket 86.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Crime / Criminal 5+ times
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Sleepy Joe
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford / General Motors / GM
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford / General Motors / GM
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$966
Trade this on Kalshi
Auto Worker / Autoworker
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Auto Worker / Autoworker
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$394
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Hussein Obama
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Hussein Obama
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Transgender 5+ times
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender 5+ times
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Hormuz / Blockade
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$756
Trade this on Polymarket
Kamala
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Supreme Court
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mar-a-Lago / Golf
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mar-a-Lago / Golf
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Nuclear (3+ times)
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear (3+ times)
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Kalshi
Space / Moon
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Space / Moon
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia / UkraineArb
72%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 43s agoKalshi 69%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$318
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$806
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 72¢ and selling on Polymarket at 78¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

Iran 5+ timesArb
71%
Polymarket 77%polled, 43s agoKalshi 69%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iran 5+ times
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$480
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (5+ times)
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 69¢ and selling on Polymarket at 75¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

Made in America / American Made
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Made in America / American Made
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fish / Fisher / Fishing
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fish / Fisher / Fishing
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Polymarket
SI / Super Intelligence
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Polymarket
Hell 15+ times
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hell 15+ times
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$478
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel / Israeli
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$717
Trade this on Kalshi
Veteran
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Veteran
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Polymarket
Hormuz
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hormuz
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff 6+ times
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tariff 6+ times
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Polymarket
Ass
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ass
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
America First
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gulf of America
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gulf of America
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$882
Trade this on Kalshi
Blockade
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blockade
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$340
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial IntelligenceArb
25.3%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 43s agoKalshi 22%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 25¢ and selling on Polymarket at 29¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Data Center
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Polymarket
Drill Baby Drill
22.4%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 43s agoKalshi 22%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

Jacksonville
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacksonville
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Deport / Deported / Deportation
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deport / Deported / Deportation
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fentanyl
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fentanyl
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud (3+ times)
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud (3+ times)
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$432
Trade this on Kalshi
Filibuster
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Polymarket
Event does not qualify
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$359
Trade this on Polymarket
Ceasefire
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
No Qualifying Event-
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$777
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Russia / Ukraine on Kalshi at 72¢, sell on Polymarket at 78¢ (600 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 23, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 8, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 23, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 8, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • El-Sayed
  • Democrat 5+ times
  • Communist / Communism

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list El-Sayed for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during his rally in Michigan?". El-Sayed leads at 98%. Next is Democrat 5+ times at 96.2%. $90K has traded across 52 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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