The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his rally in Waco, Texas?

Starts in 2 h 18 minKickoff
Traded
$122K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times 95%

Next is Democrat 5+ times at 93.5%. The venues differ most on Iran 5+ times (Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 8%), a 53-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times
95%
Polymarket 95%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5+ times
93.5%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 91.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5+ times
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5+ times
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
France / Paris
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
France / Paris
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Event does not qualify
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Transgender 5+ times
76.5%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender 5+ times
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
Space / Moon
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Space / Moon
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Polymarket
Fish / Fisher / Fishing
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fish / Fisher / Fishing
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
SI / Super Intelligence
69.6%
Polymarket 70%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 68.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
Veteran
62.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 57.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Veteran
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Veteran
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Google
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$952
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 49 more outcomes
Mar-a-Lago / Golf
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mar-a-Lago / Golf
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hormuz / Blockade
53.9%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 46%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Polymarket
Ass
53.1%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 52%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ass
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ass
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Polymarket
Hell 15+ times
51.4%
Polymarket 50%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 55.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hell 15+ times
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Hell 15+ times
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Tariff 6+ times
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tariff 6+ times
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Polymarket
Transgender 7+ times
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender 7+ times
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Polymarket
Meat / Steak
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meat / Steak
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia / UkraineArb
46.3%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 63%polled, 17s agoKalshi 15%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 28¢ and selling on Polymarket at 70¢ nets 4200 bps before fees.

Right to Repair / Right to Fix
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Right to Repair / Right to Fix
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Polymarket
Tax 33+ times
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tax 33+ times
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jacksonville
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacksonville
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Gulf of America
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gulf of America
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Drill Baby DrillArb
26.6%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 17s agoKalshi 25%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 25¢ and selling on Polymarket at 30¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sleepy Joe
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial IntelligenceArb
25.6%
Polymarket 42%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 41.5%polled, 17s agoKalshi 4%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$126
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 41¢ nets 3700 bps before fees.

Save America Act
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Save America Act
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
24.5%
Polymarket 24%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 26%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Barack Hussein Obama
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Hussein Obama
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran 5+ timesArb
21.1%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 17s agoKalshi 8%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iran 5+ times
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (5+ times)
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 12¢ and selling on Polymarket at 58¢ nets 4600 bps before fees.

ICE
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
ICE
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff (3+ times)
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff (3+ times)
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
America First
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Kalshi
Data CenterArb
19%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 31%polled, 17s agoKalshi 5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$913
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 30¢ nets 2500 bps before fees.

France
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
France
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Windmill
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Windmill
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$652
Trade this on Kalshi
Filibuster
16.8%
Polymarket 14%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 19.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Deport / Deported / Deportation
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deport / Deported / Deportation
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Made in America / American Made
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Made in America / American Made
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sanctuary
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sanctuary
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$791
Trade this on Kalshi
Electricity
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Electricity
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Kalshi
Hormuz
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hormuz
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear (3+ times)
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear (3+ times)
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Supreme Court
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud (3+ times)
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud (3+ times)
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump Account
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump Account
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Blockade
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blockade
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$422
Trade this on Kalshi
Social Security (5+ times)
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Social Security (5+ times)
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$491
Trade this on Kalshi
Fentanyl
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fentanyl
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Palestine / Palestinian
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Palestine / Palestinian
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$711
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
2.4%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Polymarket
No Qualifying Event-
1.2%
Polymarket 1%polled, 17s agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$253
Trade this on Polymarket
Ceasefire
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Iran 5+ times on Kalshi at 12¢, sell on Polymarket at 58¢ (4600 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 22, 2026, 11:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 10, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 22, 2026, 11:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 10, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times
  • Democrat 5+ times
  • France / Paris

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during his rally in Waco, Texas?". Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times leads at 95%. Next is Democrat 5+ times at 93.5%. $122K has traded across 59 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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