The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner?

Closed
Aug 8, 2026
Traded
$40K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 8, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
250
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
250
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fake News
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fake News
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran (3+ times)
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (3+ times)
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Radical Left
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Radical Left
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Hussein Obama
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Hussein Obama
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hottest
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$863
Trade this on Kalshi
Ballroom
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ballroom
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 18 more outcomes
MAGA / Make America Great Again
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
MAGA / Make America Great Again
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sleepy Joe
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
China
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
China
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Comedy / Comedian
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Comedy / Comedian
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Kalshi
Newsom / Newscum
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Newsom / Newscum
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hoax
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoax
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$985
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$599
Trade this on Kalshi
Autopen
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Autopen
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$828
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$965
Trade this on Kalshi
Transgender
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Transgender
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$857
Trade this on Kalshi
Movie Star
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Movie Star
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$870
Trade this on Kalshi
Weave / Weaved / Weaving
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weave / Weaved / Weaving
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 250
  • Fake News
  • Iran (3+ times)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner?". 250 last traded at 85%. Next is Fake News at 85%. $40K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Aug 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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