The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say in October?

Starts in 9 daysKickoff
Traded
$105K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Autism 99%

Next is Predict / Prediction at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Autism
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Autism
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Predict / Prediction
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 42s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Predict / Prediction
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Illness
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Illness
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Polymarket
Weave
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Weave
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Polymarket
Neurotic
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Neurotic
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Fat shot / Ozempic
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fat shot / Ozempic
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$636
Trade this on Kalshi
Six Seven
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Six Seven
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dancing in the Street
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dancing in the Street
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Polymarket
Antifa
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antifa
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$950
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Dome
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Peace in the Middle East
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
UFO / UAP
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
UFO / UAP
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peptide
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peptide
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Make Iran Great Again
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Make Iran Great Again
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Autism
  • Predict / Prediction
  • Illness

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Autism for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say in October?". Autism leads at 99%. Next is Predict / Prediction at 99%. $105K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets