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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Autism 99%
Next is Predict / Prediction at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Autism99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAutism99%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Autism
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Autism
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Autism
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $20K
Predict / Prediction99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askPredict / Prediction99%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Predict / Prediction
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Predict / Prediction
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Predict / Prediction
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $7K
Illness51.5%51.5%6¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed97¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Illness51.5%Polymarket 51.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Illness
51.5%
51.5%
6¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
97¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Illness
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Illness
- Last price
- 51.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $132
Weave49%49%10¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed88¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Weave49%Polymarket 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Weave
49%
49%
10¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
88¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Weave
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Weave
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $171
Neurotic47.5%47.5%8¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed87¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $115 (1.15x)Neurotic47.5%Polymarket 47.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Neurotic
47.5%
47.5%
8¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
87¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Neurotic
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Neurotic
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $202
Six Seven41%41%18¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Six Seven41%Polymarket 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Six Seven
41%
41%
18¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Six Seven
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Six Seven
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $1K
Dancing in the Street39%39%5¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed73¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $137 (1.37x)Dancing in the Street39%Polymarket 39%polled, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Dancing in the Street
39%
39%
5¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
73¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Dancing in the Street
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dancing in the Street
- Last price
- 39%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $268
Antifa35%Not listed35%34¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, just now44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Antifa35%Kalshi 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Antifa
35%
Not listed
35%
34¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, just now
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Antifa
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Antifa
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $950
Fat shot / Ozempic30%Not listed30%29¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, just now40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)Fat shot / Ozempic30%Kalshi 30%polled, just nowBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Fat shot / Ozempic
30%
Not listed
30%
29¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, just now
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Fat shot / Ozempic
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, just nowBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fat shot / Ozempic
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $636
Golden Dome25%Not listed25%19¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, just now28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Golden Dome25%Kalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Golden Dome
25%
Not listed
25%
19¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, just now
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Golden Dome
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Golden Dome
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $5K
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
UFO / UAP18%Not listed18%13¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, just now24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)UFO / UAP18%Kalshi 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
UFO / UAP
18%
Not listed
18%
13¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, just now
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
UFO / UAP
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- UFO / UAP
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $521
Peace in the Middle East15%Not listed15%14¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, just now15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Peace in the Middle East15%Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Peace in the Middle East
15%
Not listed
15%
14¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, just now
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Peace in the Middle East
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Peace in the Middle East
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $2K
Epstein14%Not listed14%14¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, just now18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Epstein14%Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Epstein
14%
Not listed
14%
14¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, just now
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Epstein
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Epstein
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $1K
Peptide11%Not listed11%6¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, just now11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Peptide11%Kalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Peptide
11%
Not listed
11%
6¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, just now
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Peptide
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Peptide
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $2K
Make Iran Great Again9%Not listed9%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Make Iran Great Again9%Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Make Iran Great Again
9%
Not listed
9%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Make Iran Great Again
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Make Iran Great Again
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $3K
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Autism
- Predict / Prediction
- Illness
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Autism for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say in October?". Autism leads at 99%. Next is Predict / Prediction at 99%. $105K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 'mention' will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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