The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say this month?

Closed
May 12, 2026
Traded
$729K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Predict / Prediction
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3825 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Predict / Prediction
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$86K
Trade this on Kalshi
Who are you with / Where are you from
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Who are you with / Where are you from
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Turning Point
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turning Point
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Greenland
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greenland
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pelosi
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pelosi
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moscow
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moscow
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nine War / Ninth War
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nine War / Ninth War
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Make Iran Great Again
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Make Iran Great Again
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Goat
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goat
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Third Term
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Third Term
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein Island
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein Island
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Discombobulator
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Discombobulator
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stimulus
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stimulus
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Predict / Prediction
  • Who are you with / Where are you from
  • Crypto / Bitcoin

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump say this month?". Predict / Prediction last traded at 99%. Next is Who are you with / Where are you from at 89%. $729K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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