The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say this month?

Closed
Jun 18, 2026
Traded
$466K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 18, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
American Dream
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
American Dream
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kimmel
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kimmel
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
UFO / UAP
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
UFO / UAP
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Palestine / Palestinian
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Palestine / Palestinian
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nine War / Ninth War
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nine War / Ninth War
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Autism
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Autism
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fat shot / Ozempic
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fat shot / Ozempic
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pelosi
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pelosi
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moscow
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moscow
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Make Iran Great Again
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Make Iran Great Again
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Goat
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goat
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein Island
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein Island
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Crypto / Bitcoin
  • American Dream
  • Kimmel

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Trump say this month?". Crypto / Bitcoin last traded at 61%. Next is American Dream at 56%. $466K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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