The Prediction Markets

What will Urban Outfitters say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Feb 22, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Tariff 84%

Next is IEEPA at 83%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Tariff
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Kalshi
IEEPA
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
IEEPA
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Refund
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Refund
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Kalshi
Headwind
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Headwind
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Holiday
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Holiday
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
International / Internationally
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
International / Internationally
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Back to School
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Back to School
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Kalshi
Beauty
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beauty
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Middle East
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Middle East
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Supply Chain
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supply Chain
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Store Opening
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Store Opening
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Kalshi
Gemini
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gemini
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
DoorDash
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
DoorDash
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
Claude
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Claude
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Urban Outfitters, Inc. Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tariff
  • IEEPA
  • Refund

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Urban Outfitters say during their next earnings call?". Tariff leads at 84%. Next is IEEPA at 83%. $1K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 22, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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