The Prediction Markets

What will Vistra say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Feb 4, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Cogentrix 92%

Next is Meta at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Cogentrix
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cogentrix
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$652
Trade this on Kalshi
Meta
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meta
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Investment Grade
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Investment Grade
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyperscaler
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyperscaler
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Oak Hill
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oak Hill
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Martin Lake
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Martin Lake
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Kalshi
Battery
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Battery
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Moss Landing
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moss Landing
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Buyback / Buy Back
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Buyback / Buy Back
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Kalshi
Capacity Auction
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Capacity Auction
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Vistra Corp. Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cogentrix
  • Meta
  • Investment Grade

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Vistra say during their next earnings call?". Cogentrix leads at 92%. Next is Meta at 90%. $4K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 4, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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