The Prediction Markets

What will Vlad Tenev say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 40 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

AI / Artificial Intelligence 78%

Next is Tokenized / Tokenization at 76%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tokenized / Tokenization
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokenized / Tokenization
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Kalshi
Prediction Market
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Prediction Market
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Cryptocurrency
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Sport
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sport
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Perp / Perpetual
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perp / Perpetual
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
Social
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Social
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Retire / Retirement
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Retire / Retirement
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Active Trader / Active Trading
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Active Trader / Active Trading
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Bank / Banking
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bank / Banking
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Option
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Option
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Agent / Agentic
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Agent / Agentic
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Kalshi
Credit Card
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Credit Card
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bitcoin
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kalshi
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gold (3+ times)
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gold (3+ times)
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • AI / Artificial Intelligence
  • Tokenized / Tokenization
  • Prediction Market

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Vlad Tenev say during NYT DealBook Summit?". AI / Artificial Intelligence leads at 78%. Next is Tokenized / Tokenization at 76%. $2K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets