The Prediction Markets

When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?

Closes
Jan 2, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Before Jan 2027 64%

Next is Before Dec 2026 at 51%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jan 2027
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 2027
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 2026
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 2026
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
None before 2027
37.6%
Polymarket 37.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $262 (2.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
None before 2027
Last price
37.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38.1¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$262 (2.62x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Polymarket
Susie Wiles
32.2%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 25.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $362 (3.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
25.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27.6¢
Sell Yes
23.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$362 (3.62x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kristi Noem
28.2%
Polymarket 28.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
28.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
22.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$99K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Scavino
27.8%
Polymarket 27.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dan Scavino
Last price
27.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Polymarket
Russell T. Vought
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
Markwayne Mullin
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Markwayne Mullin
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Homan
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Hegseth
20.7%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 9.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$136K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 22 more outcomes
Kash Patel
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$311K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
11.7%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 2026
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 2026
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Howard Lutnick
9.9%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lee Zeldin
9.4%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brooke Rollins
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen Miller
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Sacks
6.9%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Sacks
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Rubio
5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$798
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Waltz
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Scott Bessent
4.3%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russell T. Vought
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russell T. Vought
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket
John Ratcliffe
3.9%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$698
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$825
Trade this on Polymarket
Doug Burgum
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Kelly Loeffler
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Linda McMahon
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jamieson Greer
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Doug Collins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Polymarket
Scott Turner
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$576
Trade this on Polymarket
Sean Duffy
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$974
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Wright
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bloomberg, White House, New York Times

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 2027
  • Before Dec 2026
  • None before 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jan 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?". Before Jan 2027 leads at 64%. Next is Before Dec 2026 at 51%. $1.6M has traded across 32 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 2, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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