The Prediction Markets

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$757K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before 2028 66%

Next is December 31, 2027 at 64%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before 2028
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2028
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31, 2027
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$101K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jul 1, 2027
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Kalshi
Hodge Conjecture
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hodge Conjecture
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Polymarket
No solution by Dec 31, 2027
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
No solution by Dec 31, 2027
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$84K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before 2027
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2027
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31, 2026
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$222K
Trade this on Polymarket
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 1, 2026
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yang-Mills
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yang-Mills
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
Before Nov 1, 2026
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
P versus NP
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
P versus NP
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Riemann Hypothesis
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riemann Hypothesis
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: claymath.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, National Academy of Sciences of the United States, Financial Times

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before 2028
  • December 31, 2027
  • Before Jul 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before 2028 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?". Before 2028 leads at 66%. Next is December 31, 2027 at 64%. $757K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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