The Prediction Markets

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$3.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before Mar 1, 2027 92%

Next is Before Apr 1, 2027 at 90%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$321K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$278K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.50–$1.75T
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 42.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $236 (2.36x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.50–$1.75T
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
42.3¢
Sell Yes
39.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$236 (2.36x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.75–$2.00T
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.75–$2.00T
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 16, 2026
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 16, 2026
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.25–$1.50T
13.7%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $633 (6.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.25–$1.50T
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15.8¢
Sell Yes
11.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$633 (6.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.00–$2.25T
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.00–$2.25T
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
1.25T
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.25T
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 1, 2026
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$915K
Trade this on Kalshi
No IPO by December 31, 2027
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
No IPO by December 31, 2027
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.25–$2.50T
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.25–$2.50T
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Oct 24, 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 24, 2026
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$171K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.50T+
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.50T+
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Mar 1, 2027
  • Before Apr 1, 2027
  • Before Feb 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Mar 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?". Before Mar 1, 2027 leads at 92%. Next is Before Apr 1, 2027 at 90%. $3.5M has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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