Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
before April 2027 69%
Next is before 2027 at 51%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
before April 202769%69%69¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 5 min ago76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)before April 202769%Kalshi 69%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
before April 2027
69%
69%
69¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
before April 2027
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- before April 2027
- Last price
- 69%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $3K
before 202751%51%50¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 5 min ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)before 202751%Kalshi 51%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
before 2027
51%
51%
50¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
before 2027
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- before 2027
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $447
before December29%29%28¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 5 min ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)before December29%Kalshi 29%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
before December
29%
29%
28¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
before December
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- before December
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $2K
before November6%6%2¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 5 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)before November6%Kalshi 6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
before November
6%
6%
2¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
before November
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- before November
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Food and Drug Administration, Beam Therapeutics
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- before April 2027
- before 2027
- before December
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?". before April 2027 leads at 69%. Next is before 2027 at 51%. $25K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More other markets
See all other markets- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?December 318.5%$76.5M traded
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Yes1.4%$66.6M traded
- Which party will win the U.S. House?Democratic Party91.4%$65.7M traded
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?Nithya Raman51%$42.5M traded
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Before Jan 20, 202923%$36.8M traded
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?Yes18%$25.9M traded