The Prediction Markets

When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$4.1M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before January 2027 24%

Next is Before December 2026 at 14%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before January 2027
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before January 2027
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Before December 2026
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before December 2026
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$190K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before November 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before November 2026
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$339K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before January 2027
  • Before December 2026
  • Before November 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?". Before January 2027 leads at 24%. Next is Before December 2026 at 14%. $4.1M has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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