The Prediction Markets

When will Bitcoin have its next halving?

Closes
Jun 1, 2028, in 20 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
19 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

June 30, 2028 98.8%

Next is Before Jun 2028 at 90.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 21 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
June 30, 2028
98.8%
Polymarket 98.8%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2028
Last price
98.8%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
97.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jun 2028
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 97.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 2028
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
97.7¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 2028
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 2028
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
March 31, 2028
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2028
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$198
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Apr 2028
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 2028
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 2028
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 2028
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: mempool.space
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • June 30, 2028
  • Before Jun 2028
  • Before May 2028

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list June 30, 2028 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Bitcoin have its next halving?". June 30, 2028 leads at 98.8%. Next is Before Jun 2028 at 90.1%. $27K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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