The Prediction Markets

When will Bitcoin hit $100k?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$4.3M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

by December 31, 2027 72.5%

Next is by September 30, 2027 at 64.5%. The venues differ most on By 2026-12-31 (Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 23%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 8 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
by December 31, 2027
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
by December 31, 2027
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
by September 30, 2027
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
by September 30, 2027
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
by June 30, 2027
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
by June 30, 2027
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
by March 31, 2027
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
by March 31, 2027
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
By 2026-12-31Arb
22.6%
Polymarket 21.5%live, just nowKalshi 23%live, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
by December 31, 2026
Price
21.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Before January 2027
Price
23%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Polymarket at 22¢ and selling on Kalshi at 23¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Before December 2026
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before December 2026
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$190K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before November 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before November 2026
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$339K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy By 2026-12-31 on Polymarket at 22¢, sell on Kalshi at 23¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks real-time index; Polymarket on Binance 1-minute candles.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi rungs count from their own start date (e.g. 'cross $100k again' from Jul 21, 2026); Polymarket from market creation. Only identical deadlines are linked.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks real-time index; Polymarket on Binance 1-minute candles.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi rungs count from their own start date (e.g. 'cross $100k again' from Jul 21, 2026); Polymarket from market creation. Only identical deadlines are linked.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • by December 31, 2027
  • by September 30, 2027
  • by June 30, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list by December 31, 2027 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Bitcoin hit $100k?". by December 31, 2027 leads at 72.5%. Next is by September 30, 2027 at 64.5%. $4.3M has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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