The Prediction Markets

When will Carson Beck start his first Pro Football game?

Closes
Jan 19, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Carson Beck first start: Does not start in the regular season 44.7%

Next is Week 11 to Week 14 at 24.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Carson Beck first start: Does not start in the regular season 44.7%Week 11 to Week 14 24.5%Week 15 to Week 18 13.8%Week 8 to Week 10 12.8%Week 5 to Week 7 4.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Carson Beck first start: Does not start in the regular season
44.7%
Kalshi 42%(44.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carson Beck first start: Does not start in the regular season
Last price
42%
Fair, margin removed
44.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Week 11 to Week 14
24.5%
Kalshi 23%(24.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Week 11 to Week 14
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
24.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Kalshi
Week 15 to Week 18
13.8%
Kalshi 13%(13.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Week 15 to Week 18
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
13.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$167
Trade this on Kalshi
Week 8 to Week 10
12.8%
Kalshi 12%(12.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Week 8 to Week 10
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
12.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Week 5 to Week 7
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Week 5 to Week 7
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Carson Beck first start: Does not start in the regular season
  • Week 11 to Week 14
  • Week 15 to Week 18

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Carson Beck start his first Pro Football game?". Carson Beck first start: Does not start in the regular season leads at 44.7%. Next is Week 11 to Week 14 at 24.5%. $2K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 19, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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