The Prediction Markets

When will Databricks officially announce an IPO?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$50K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
6 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2028 65%

Next is Before Dec 1, 2027 at 60%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2027
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2027
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2027
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2027
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$921
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Sep 1, 2027
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Sep 1, 2027
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$842
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2027
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2027
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jun 1, 2027
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 1, 2027
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2027
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Before Mar 1, 2027
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$570
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2026
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Dec 1, 2027
  • Before Nov 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Databricks officially announce an IPO?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 65%. Next is Before Dec 1, 2027 at 60%. $50K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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