The Prediction Markets

When will Drake release a new album?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$224K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

December 31 20.5%

Next is Before Dec 1, 2026 at 15%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
December 31
20.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 32.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 1, 2026
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
November 30
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$703
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 1, 2026
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 31
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Oct 24, 2026
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 24, 2026
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31
  • Before Dec 1, 2026
  • Before Jan 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list December 31 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Drake release a new album?". December 31 leads at 20.5%. Next is Before Dec 1, 2026 at 15%. $224K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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