The Prediction Markets

When will Dune: Part Three be released?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

75+ 93.5%

Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 92%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
75+
93.5%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
75+
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2027
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
80+
80%
Polymarket 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
80+
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Polymarket
85+
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
85+
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Polymarket
90+
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
90+
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Polymarket
95+
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
95+
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 1, 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Reuters, Axios, Politico

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 75+
  • Before Jan 1, 2027
  • 80+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 75+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Dune: Part Three be released?". 75+ leads at 93.5%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 92%. $22K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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