The Prediction Markets

When will Fernando Mendoza start his first Pro Football game?

Closes
Jan 19, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Week 18 73.5%

Next is Week 17 at 65%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Week 18
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 18
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 17
65%
Polymarket 65%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 17
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 15
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 15
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 16
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 16
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 14
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 14
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 15 to Week 18
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Week 15 to Week 18
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernando Mendoza first start: Does not start in the regular season
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Mendoza first start: Does not start in the regular season
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Kalshi
Week 11
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 11
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 12
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 12
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 11 to Week 14
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Week 11 to Week 14
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Week 9
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 9
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 10
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 10
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$753
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 7
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 7
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$544
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 13
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 13
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 9 to Week 10
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Week 9 to Week 10
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Week 8
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Week 8
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Week 7 to Week 8
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Week 7 to Week 8
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Week 5
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Week 5
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Week 6
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Week 6
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Kalshi

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 19, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 19, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Week 18
  • Week 17
  • Week 15

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Week 18 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Fernando Mendoza start his first Pro Football game?". Week 18 leads at 73.5%. Next is Week 17 at 65%. $18K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 19, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets