The Prediction Markets

When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

November 9–November 15 17%

Next is October 26–November 1 at 11.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

November 9–November 15 17%October 26–November 1 11.8%November 30–December 6 11.4%November 16–November 22 8.7%December 21–December 27 8.3%11 others 42.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
November 9–November 15
17%
Polymarket 19.5%(17.1% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 9–November 15
Last price
19.5%
Fair, margin removed
17.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$517
Trade this on Polymarket
October 26–November 1
11.8%
Polymarket 13.5%(11.8% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 26–November 1
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30–December 6
11.4%
Polymarket 13%(11.4% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30–December 6
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$756
Trade this on Polymarket
November 16–November 22
8.7%
Polymarket 10%(8.7% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 16–November 22
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Polymarket
December 21–December 27
8.3%
Polymarket 9.5%(8.3% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 21–December 27
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
November 2–November 8
8.3%
Polymarket 9.5%(8.3% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 2–November 8
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Polymarket
December 7–December 13
7.3%
Polymarket 8.4%(7.3% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 16.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $610 (6.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 7–December 13
Last price
8.4%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$610 (6.10x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
December 28–January 3
7%
Polymarket 8%(7% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 28–January 3
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$456
Trade this on Polymarket
No release by January 31
7%
Polymarket 8%(7% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
No release by January 31
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
November 23–November 29
6.8%
Polymarket 7.8%(6.8% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 23–November 29
Last price
7.8%
Fair, margin removed
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Prior to October 26
3.1%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prior to October 26
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Polymarket
January 25–January 31
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
January 25–January 31
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Polymarket
December 14–December 20
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 14–December 20
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Polymarket
January 4–January 10
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
January 4–January 10
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$263
Trade this on Polymarket
January 11–January 17
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
January 11–January 17
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Polymarket
January 18–January 24
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
January 18–January 24
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 9–November 15
  • October 26–November 1
  • November 30–December 6

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?". November 9–November 15 leads at 17%. Next is October 26–November 1 at 11.8%. $5K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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