The Prediction Markets

When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Closed
Jun 19, 2026
Traded
$242K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2026
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2026
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 8, 2026
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 8, 2026
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 18, 2026
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 18, 2026
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jun 27, 2026
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 27, 2026
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jun 24, 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 24, 2026
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Senate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Aug 1, 2026
  • Before Aug 8, 2026
  • Before Jul 18, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?". Before Aug 1, 2026 last traded at 63%. Next is Before Aug 8, 2026 at 63%. $242K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Aug 8, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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