The Prediction Markets

When will Las Vegas receive a Pro Basketball expansion team?

Closes
Jan 1, 2030, in 39 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2030 95%

Next is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 93.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2030
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2030
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2029
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2029
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
76.5%
Kalshi 76.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2026
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 39s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$657
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 39s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$541
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, Sports Business Journal, The Wall Street Journal

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2030
  • Before Jan 1, 2029
  • Before Jan 1, 2028

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Las Vegas receive a Pro Basketball expansion team?". Before Jan 1, 2030 leads at 95%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 93.5%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2030.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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