The Prediction Markets

When will MegaETH hit $0.10?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

by December 31, 2027 24.7%

Next is by June 30, 2027 at 22.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

by December 31, 2027 24.7%by June 30, 2027 22.9%by September 30, 2027 19.4%by March 31, 2027 17.2%by December 31, 2026 15.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
by December 31, 2027
24.7%
Polymarket 28%(24.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
by December 31, 2027
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
24.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
by June 30, 2027
22.9%
Polymarket 26%(22.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
by June 30, 2027
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
22.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
by September 30, 2027
19.4%
Polymarket 22%(19.4% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
by September 30, 2027
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
19.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$943
Trade this on Polymarket
by March 31, 2027
17.2%
Polymarket 19.5%(17.2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
by March 31, 2027
Last price
19.5%
Fair, margin removed
17.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
by December 31, 2026
15.8%
Polymarket 18%(15.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
by December 31, 2026
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
15.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • by December 31, 2027
  • by June 30, 2027
  • by September 30, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will MegaETH hit $0.10?". by December 31, 2027 leads at 24.7%. Next is by June 30, 2027 at 22.9%. $7K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for MegaETH (MEGA/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $0.10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the MEGA/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/MEGA_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance MEGA/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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