The Prediction Markets

When will OpenAI release GPT-7?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$162K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

November 30 87.6%

Next is Before 2028 at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
November 30
87.6%
Polymarket 87.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 88.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $113 (1.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
87.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88.2¢
Sell Yes
86.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$113 (1.13x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before 2028
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2028
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Kalshi
Before September, 2027
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before September, 2027
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
October 31
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 29
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 29
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 30
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 30
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$633
Trade this on Polymarket
October 28
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 28
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$726
Trade this on Polymarket
Before June, 2027
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before June, 2027
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 27
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 27
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Polymarket
October 26
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 26
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
Before March, 2027
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before March, 2027
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$84K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 23
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 23
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenAI

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 30
  • Before 2028
  • Before September, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list November 30 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will OpenAI release GPT-7?". November 30 leads at 87.6%. Next is Before 2028 at 82%. $162K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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