The Prediction Markets

When will the Danube River return to normal levels?

Closes
Nov 16, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Does not return by January 1, 2027 36.9%

Next is November 15 - 30, 2026 at 21.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Does not return by January 1, 2027 36.9%November 15 - 30, 2026 21.5%December 16 - 31, 2026 15.9%December 1 - 15, 2026 13.1%Before November 15, 2026 12.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Does not return by January 1, 2027
36.9%
Polymarket 39.5%(36.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Does not return by January 1, 2027
Last price
39.5%
Fair, margin removed
36.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 15 - 30, 2026
21.5%
Polymarket 23%(21.5% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 15 - 30, 2026
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$524
Trade this on Polymarket
December 16 - 31, 2026
15.9%
Polymarket 17%(15.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 16 - 31, 2026
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
15.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Polymarket
December 1 - 15, 2026
13.1%
Polymarket 14%(13.1% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 1 - 15, 2026
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
13.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$335
Trade this on Polymarket
Before November 15, 2026
12.6%
Polymarket 13.5%(12.6% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Before November 15, 2026
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
12.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: danubehis.org

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Does not return by January 1, 2027
  • November 15 - 30, 2026
  • December 16 - 31, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will the Danube River return to normal levels?". Does not return by January 1, 2027 leads at 36.9%. Next is November 15 - 30, 2026 at 21.5%. $4K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by January 1, 2027" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after January 1, 2027 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". All dates and times in this market refer to Eastern Time (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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