The Prediction Markets

When will the Kennedy Center's main building reopen?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2028 30%

Next is Before Jul 1, 2027 at 28%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 3, 2026
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 3, 2026
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 5, 2026
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 5, 2026
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Jul 1, 2027
  • Before Jan 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will the Kennedy Center's main building reopen?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 30%. Next is Before Jul 1, 2027 at 28%. $2K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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