The Prediction Markets

When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released?

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

November 23–November 29 14.7%

Next is No release by December 27 at 11.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

November 23–November 29 14.7%No release by December 27 11.9%November 30–December 6 11.1%Prior to October 26 9.7%October 26–November 1 9.4%6 others 43.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
November 23–November 29
14.7%
Polymarket 20.5%(14.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 23–November 29
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
No release by December 27
11.9%
Polymarket 16.5%(11.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
No release by December 27
Last price
16.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30–December 6
11.1%
Polymarket 15.5%(11.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30–December 6
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Polymarket
Prior to October 26
9.7%
Polymarket 13.5%(9.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prior to October 26
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Polymarket
October 26–November 1
9.4%
Polymarket 13%(9.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 26–November 1
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
9.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
December 7–December 13
9%
Polymarket 12.5%(9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 7–December 13
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Polymarket
December 21–December 27
9%
Polymarket 12.5%(9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $441 (4.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 21–December 27
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22.7¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$441 (4.41x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Polymarket
November 9–November 15
8.6%
Polymarket 12%(8.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 9–November 15
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
November 2–November 8
8.3%
Polymarket 11.5%(8.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 2–November 8
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Polymarket
November 16–November 22
4.3%
Polymarket 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 16–November 22
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$123
Trade this on Polymarket
December 14–December 20
4%
Polymarket 5.5%(4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 14–December 20
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 23–November 29
  • No release by December 27
  • November 30–December 6

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released?". November 23–November 29 leads at 14.7%. Next is No release by December 27 at 11.9%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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