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What the markets expect
Before Apr 1, 2027 70.5%
Next is No Meeting by December 31 at 64.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Before Apr 1, 202770.5%Not listed70.5%66¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 2 min ago75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Before Apr 1, 202770.5%Kalshi 70.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Before Apr 1, 2027
70.5%
Not listed
70.5%
66¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Before Apr 1, 2027
70.5%
Kalshi 70.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- Last price
- 70.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
No Meeting by December 3164.5%64.5%64¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed65¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $154 (1.54x)No Meeting by December 3164.5%Polymarket 64.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
No Meeting by December 31
64.5%
64.5%
64¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
65¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
No Meeting by December 31
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- No Meeting by December 31
- Last price
- 64.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $68K
Before Mar 1, 202742%Not listed42%5¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 2 min ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)Before Mar 1, 202742%Kalshi 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Before Mar 1, 2027
42%
Not listed
42%
5¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Before Mar 1, 2027
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Mar 1, 2027
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $466
December 31, 202634.5%34.5%34¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)December 31, 202634.5%Polymarket 34.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
December 31, 2026
34.5%
34.5%
34¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
December 31, 2026
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- December 31, 2026
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $205K
Before Jan 1, 202729%Not listed29%19¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 2 min ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Before Jan 1, 202729%Kalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Before Jan 1, 2027
29%
Not listed
29%
19¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Before Jan 1, 2027
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $2K
Before Feb 1, 202725%Not listed25%8¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 2 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Before Feb 1, 202725%Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Before Feb 1, 2027
25%
Not listed
25%
8¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Before Feb 1, 2027
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Feb 1, 2027
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $229
November 30, 202622.5%22.5%22¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)November 30, 202622.5%Polymarket 22.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
November 30, 2026
22.5%
22.5%
22¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
23¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
November 30, 2026
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- November 30, 2026
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $61K
Before Dec 1, 202618%Not listed18%18¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 2 min ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Before Dec 1, 202618%Kalshi 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Before Dec 1, 2026
18%
Not listed
18%
18¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Before Dec 1, 2026
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $8K
Qatar12.8%12.8%12.2¢ bid, 13.4¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed13.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $746 (7.46x)Qatar12.8%Polymarket 12.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 13.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $746 (7.46x)
Qatar
12.8%
12.8%
12.2¢ bid, 13.4¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
13.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $746 (7.46x)
Qatar
12.8%
Polymarket 12.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 13.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $746 (7.46x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Qatar
- Last price
- 12.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 12.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $746 (7.46x)
- Volume
- $17K
Switzerland5.8%5.8%5.2¢ bid, 6.4¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed6.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)Switzerland5.8%Polymarket 5.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Switzerland
5.8%
5.8%
5.2¢ bid, 6.4¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
6.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Switzerland
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Switzerland
- Last price
- 5.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,563 (15.6x)
- Volume
- $3K
Show 17 more outcomesHide 17 outcomes
October 31, 20265.5%5.5%5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)October 31, 20265.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
October 31, 2026
5.5%
5.5%
5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
October 31, 2026
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- October 31, 2026
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $254K
Oman4.3%4.3%1.7¢ bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed6.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)Oman4.3%Polymarket 4.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Oman
4.3%
4.3%
1.7¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
6.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Oman
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Oman
- Last price
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
UAE4%4%1¢ bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed6.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)UAE4%Polymarket 4%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
UAE
4%
4%
1¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
6.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
UAE
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- UAE
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
Austria3.1%3.1%2.3¢ bid, 3.8¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed3.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)Austria3.1%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Austria
3.1%
3.1%
2.3¢ bid, 3.8¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
3.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Austria
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Austria
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,632 (26.3x)
- Volume
- $3K
Italy3%3%1¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Italy3%Polymarket 3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Italy
3%
3%
1¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Italy
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Italy
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $3K
Pakistan2.7%2.7%1.4¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Pakistan2.7%Polymarket 2.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Pakistan
2.7%
2.7%
1.4¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Pakistan
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pakistan
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Turkey2.7%2.7%1¢ bid, 4.3¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed4.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)Turkey2.7%Polymarket 2.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Turkey
2.7%
2.7%
1¢ bid, 4.3¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
4.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Turkey
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Turkey
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,326 (23.3x)
- Volume
- $3K
USA2%2%1.5¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)USA2%Polymarket 2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
USA
2%
2%
1.5¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
USA
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- USA
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $36K
Saudi Arabia1.8%1.8%1¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)Saudi Arabia1.8%Polymarket 1.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Saudi Arabia
1.8%
1.8%
1¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Saudi Arabia
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Saudi Arabia
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Russia1.3%1.3%1¢ bid, 1.6¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed1.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)Russia1.3%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Russia
1.3%
1.3%
1¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
1.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Russia
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Russia
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,250 (62.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
Before Nov 1, 20261%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Before Nov 1, 20261%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Before Nov 1, 2026
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Before Nov 1, 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $9K
Other - Middle East/North Africa1%1%0.2¢ bid, 1.8¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed1.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)Other - Middle East/North Africa1%Polymarket 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Other - Middle East/North Africa
1%
1%
0.2¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
1.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Other - Middle East/North Africa
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Other - Middle East/North Africa
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $3K
Other - Europe0.9%0.9%0.8¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Other - Europe0.9%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Other - Europe
0.9%
0.9%
0.8¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Other - Europe
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Other - Europe
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Iran0.6%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Iran0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Iran
0.6%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Iran
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Iran
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Egypt0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)Egypt0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Egypt
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Egypt
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Egypt
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $4K
Iraq0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Iraq0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Iraq
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Iraq
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Iraq
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kazakhstan0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 23s agoNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Kazakhstan0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kazakhstan
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kazakhstan
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kazakhstan
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $4K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: israelhayom.com, aljazeera.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Washington Post, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- No Meeting by December 31
- Before Mar 1, 2027
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Before Apr 1, 2027 for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?". Before Apr 1, 2027 leads at 70.5%. Next is No Meeting by December 31 at 64.5%. $1.0M has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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