The Prediction Markets

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$35.9M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
19 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 88.5%

Next is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 59%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 23 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
88.5%
Polymarket 88.5%polled, 23 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled 23 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$400K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2029
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2029
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2028
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2028
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$74K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2027
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2027
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$74K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2027
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2027
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$910
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2027
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2027
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Sep 1, 2027
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Sep 1, 2027
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Before Jun 1, 2027
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 1, 2027
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$838
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2027
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$842K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$909
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
10%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 19 min agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$15.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$960K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2027
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
December
7.6%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 23 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
December
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 23 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 1, 2026
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
November
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 23 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
November
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 23 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
October
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 23 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
October
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 23 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 1, 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: portwatch.imf.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
  • Before Jan 1, 2029
  • Before Jul 1, 2028

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?". No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 leads at 88.5%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 59%. $35.9M has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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