The Prediction Markets

When will Trump and Mamdani meet?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$3.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Vladimir Putin 84%

Next is China at 78.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Vladimir Putin
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$177K
Trade this on Polymarket
China
78.5%
Polymarket 78.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
China
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$324K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mohammed bin Salman
66.5%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Mar 1, 2027
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Kalshi
Kim Jong Un
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$259K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 1, 2026
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
No meeting by December 31
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
No meeting by December 31
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$524K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aleksandr Lukashenko
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aleksandr Lukashenko
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yes
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 23 more outcomes
Changpeng Zhao
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Changpeng Zhao
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Polymarket
King Mohammed VI
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
King Mohammed VI
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
MrBeast
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
MrBeast
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pope Leo XIV
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lai Ching-te
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lai Ching-te
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nick Fuentes
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nick Fuentes
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$96K
Trade this on Polymarket
iShowSpeed
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
iShowSpeed
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yoon Suk Yeol
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoon Suk Yeol
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$103K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jair Bolsonaro
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jair Bolsonaro
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 1, 2026
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gulf country
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gulf country
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Polymarket
United States
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
United States
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$119K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$135K
Trade this on Polymarket
Turkey
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Turkey
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$89K
Trade this on Polymarket
Belarus
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Belarus
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$84K
Trade this on Polymarket
Finland
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Finland
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$78K
Trade this on Polymarket
Other EU country
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Other EU country
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Polymarket
Switzerland
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Switzerland
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$76K
Trade this on Polymarket
Australia
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Australia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
Japan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Japan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Korea
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Korea
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ukraine
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Washington Post, The White House, Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Vladimir Putin
  • China
  • Mohammed bin Salman

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Vladimir Putin for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "When will Trump and Mamdani meet?". Vladimir Putin leads at 84%. Next is China at 78.5%. $3.4M has traded across 33 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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