The Prediction Markets

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$4.3M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Hottest on record 76%

Next is 2 at 18.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 8 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hottest on recordArb
76%
Polymarket 81%live, just nowKalshi 73.7%live, just nowKalshi 70%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Price
81%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$731K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Price
73.7%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
73.8¢
Sell Yes
73.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$136 (1.36x)
Volume
$430K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 72¢ and selling on Polymarket at 80¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

2
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$475K
Trade this on Polymarket
3
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$535K
Trade this on Polymarket
4
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
4
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$555K
Trade this on Polymarket
5
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$908K
Trade this on Polymarket
6 or lower
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
6 or lower
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$605K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Hottest on record on Kalshi at 72¢, sell on Polymarket at 80¢ (800 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi also requires the GISS annual value to exceed a fixed level (e.g. 1.28 C) as well as the prior record; Polymarket resolves on rank alone, with ties resolving to the tied rank.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: data.giss.nasa.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi also requires the GISS annual value to exceed a fixed level (e.g. 1.28 C) as well as the prior record; Polymarket resolves on rank alone, with ties resolving to the tied rank.
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hottest on record
  • 2
  • 3

Live prices for Hottest on record

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?". Hottest on record leads at 76%. Next is 2 at 18.5%. $4.3M has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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