Top of book
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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Illinois House 97%
Next is Colorado House at 60%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 54 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Illinois House97%97%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 54 min ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Illinois House97%Kalshi 97%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Illinois House
97%
97%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Illinois House
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Illinois House
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $60
Colorado House60%60%16¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 54 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Colorado House60%Kalshi 60%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Colorado House
60%
60%
16¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Colorado House
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colorado House
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $425
California Senate50%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 54 min ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)California Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
California Senate
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
California Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- California Senate
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Delaware Senate50%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 54 min ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Delaware Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Delaware Senate
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Delaware Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Delaware Senate
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Nevada Assembly50%50%5¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 54 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Nevada Assembly50%Kalshi 50%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Nevada Assembly
50%
50%
5¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Nevada Assembly
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nevada Assembly
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
California SenateKalshi: “Colorado Senate”49.5%49.5%4¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 54 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)California Senate49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
California Senate
Kalshi: “Colorado Senate”
49.5%
49.5%
4¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
California Senate
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colorado Senate
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Delaware House49.5%49.5%3¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 54 min ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Delaware House49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Delaware House
49.5%
49.5%
3¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Delaware House
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Delaware House
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
Maine Senate49.5%49.5%4¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 54 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Maine Senate49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Maine Senate
49.5%
49.5%
4¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Maine Senate
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine Senate
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Nevada Senate49.5%49.5%4¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 54 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Nevada Senate49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Nevada Senate
49.5%
49.5%
4¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Nevada Senate
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nevada Senate
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Nevada SenateKalshi: “New York Senate”49.5%49.5%4¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 54 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Nevada Senate49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Nevada Senate
Kalshi: “New York Senate”
49.5%
49.5%
4¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Nevada Senate
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York Senate
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
New Mexico House49.5%49.5%4¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 54 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)New Mexico House49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
New Mexico House
49.5%
49.5%
4¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
New Mexico House
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Mexico House
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Washington Senate49.5%49.5%6¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 54 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Washington Senate49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Washington Senate
49.5%
49.5%
6¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Washington Senate
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Washington Senate
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Oregon House49%49%4¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 54 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Oregon House49%Kalshi 49%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Oregon House
49%
49%
4¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Oregon House
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oregon House
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Oregon Senate49%49%4¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 54 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Oregon Senate49%Kalshi 49%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Oregon Senate
49%
49%
4¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Oregon Senate
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oregon Senate
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
California Assembly48.5%48.5%4¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 54 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)California Assembly48.5%Kalshi 48.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
California Assembly
48.5%
48.5%
4¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
California Assembly
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- California Assembly
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Hawaii Senate48.5%48.5%4¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 54 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Hawaii Senate48.5%Kalshi 48.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Hawaii Senate
48.5%
48.5%
4¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Hawaii Senate
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hawaii Senate
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Illinois Senate48.5%48.5%4¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 54 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Illinois Senate48.5%Kalshi 48.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Illinois Senate
48.5%
48.5%
4¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Illinois Senate
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Illinois Senate
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Maine SenateKalshi: “Maryland Senate”48.5%48.5%4¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 54 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Maine Senate48.5%Kalshi 48.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Maine Senate
Kalshi: “Maryland Senate”
48.5%
48.5%
4¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Maine Senate
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maryland Senate
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
California SenateKalshi: “Connecticut Senate”48%48%2¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 54 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)California Senate48%Kalshi 48%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
California Senate
Kalshi: “Connecticut Senate”
48%
48%
2¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
California Senate
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Connecticut Senate
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Colorado HouseKalshi: “Connecticut House”48%48%2¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 54 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Colorado House48%Kalshi 48%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Colorado House
Kalshi: “Connecticut House”
48%
48%
2¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Colorado House
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Connecticut House
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Nevada AssemblyKalshi: “New York Assembly”47.5%47.5%1¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 54 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Nevada Assembly47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Nevada Assembly
Kalshi: “New York Assembly”
47.5%
47.5%
1¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Nevada Assembly
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York Assembly
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Vermont Senate46%46%7¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 54 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Vermont Senate46%Kalshi 46%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Vermont Senate
46%
46%
7¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Vermont Senate
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vermont Senate
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $3K
Vermont House45%45%5¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 54 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Vermont House45%Kalshi 45%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Vermont House
45%
45%
5¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Vermont House
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vermont House
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $3K
Washington House28%28%3¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 54 min ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Washington House28%Kalshi 28%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Washington House
28%
28%
3¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 54 min ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Washington House
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Washington House
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 54 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $429
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State, Colorado Secretary of State, Connecticut Secretary of the State
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Illinois House
- Colorado House
- California Senate
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?". Illinois House leads at 97%. Next is Colorado House at 60%. $7K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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