The Prediction Markets

Where will it rain on Nov 14, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$571K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

San Francisco 99.1%

Next is Albuquerque at 99%. The venues differ most on Los Angeles (Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 99%), a 44-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
San Francisco
99.1%
Polymarket 99.6%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 99%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
San Francisco, CA
Last price
99.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.2¢
Volume
$520
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Albuquerque
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Albuquerque
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oklahoma City
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Oklahoma City
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
San Antonio
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
San Antonio
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Seattle
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Seattle
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Los Angeles
87.9%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 99%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Los Angeles, CA
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$74K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Dallas
84.9%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 85%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas, TX
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$665
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

College Station
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
College Station
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pittsburgh
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pittsburgh
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
Houston
18.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 24%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Houston, TX
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Houston
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Denver
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denver
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
New York City
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
New York City
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Newark
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Newark
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington DC
1.2%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington, DC
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Washington DC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

New Orleans
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Orleans, LA
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Orleans
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$763
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Boston
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Boston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chicago
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chicago
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Columbus
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Columbus
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Detroit
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Detroit
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Indianapolis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indianapolis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lexington
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lexington
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Milwaukee
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Milwaukee
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Minneapolis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minneapolis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Kalshi
Providence
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Providence
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Springfield
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Springfield
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
St. Louis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
St. Louis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tampa
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tampa
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Trenton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trenton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
West Palm Beach
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
West Palm Beach
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Kalshi
Philadelphia
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philadelphia, PA
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Atlanta
0.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atlanta, GA
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Atlanta
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Miami
0.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miami, FL
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miami
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Phoenix, AZ
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phoenix, AZ
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the NWS Daily Climate Report precipitation for each city's station. Kalshi pays on 'strictly greater than 0 inches'; Polymarket on 0.01 in or more and excludes trace. Treat a trace report as a possible split.
  • City lists differ; only cities on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 15, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: forecast.weather.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the NWS Daily Climate Report precipitation for each city's station. Kalshi pays on 'strictly greater than 0 inches'; Polymarket on 0.01 in or more and excludes trace. Treat a trace report as a possible split.
  • City lists differ; only cities on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Nov 15, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • San Francisco
  • Albuquerque
  • Oklahoma City

Live prices for San Francisco

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Where will it rain on Nov 14, 2026?". San Francisco leads at 99.1%. Next is Albuquerque at 99%. $571K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More climate markets

See all climate markets