The Prediction Markets

Where will it rain on October 22?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

San Francisco, CA 50%

Next is Atlanta, GA at 0.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
San Francisco, CA
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 37s ago
Polymarket
Contract
San Francisco, CA
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
0.1¢
Volume
$160
Trade this on Polymarket
Atlanta, GA
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atlanta, GA
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Boston, MA
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boston, MA
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Chicago, IL
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chicago, IL
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
Dallas, TX
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas, TX
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Houston, TX
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Houston, TX
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Polymarket
Los Angeles, CA
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Los Angeles, CA
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket
New Orleans, LA
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Orleans, LA
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
New York, NY
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
New York, NY
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Philadelphia, PA
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philadelphia, PA
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
Phoenix, AZ
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phoenix, AZ
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Polymarket
Seattle, WA
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Seattle, WA
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Polymarket
Washington, DC
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington, DC
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Miami, FL
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miami, FL
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: forecast.weather.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • San Francisco, CA
  • Atlanta, GA
  • Boston, MA

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Where will it rain on October 22?". San Francisco, CA leads at 50%. Next is Atlanta, GA at 0.5%. $3K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 22, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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