The Prediction Markets

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet?

Closes
Dec 31, 2028, in 27 months
Traded
$36K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Turkey 24.7%

Next is United Arab Emirates at 15.1%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Turkey 24.7%United Arab Emirates 15.1%United States 13.7%Switzerland 11%Germany 8.2%4 others 27.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Turkey
24.7%
Kalshi 18%(24.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turkey
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
24.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
United Arab Emirates
15.1%
Kalshi 11%(15.1% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
United Arab Emirates
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
15.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Kalshi
United States
13.7%
Kalshi 10%(13.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
United States
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Switzerland
11%
Kalshi 8%(11% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Switzerland
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Germany
8.2%
Kalshi 6%(8.2% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$913
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia
8.2%
Kalshi 6%(8.2% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russia
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Kalshi
China
6.8%
Kalshi 5%(6.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
China
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$494
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine
6.8%
Kalshi 5%(6.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Kalshi
Hungary
5.5%
Kalshi 4%(5.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hungary
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the New York Times, Bloomberg, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Turkey
  • United Arab Emirates
  • United States

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet?". Turkey leads at 24.7%. Next is United Arab Emirates at 15.1%. $36K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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