Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Utah Senate 80%
Next is Arizona House at 50%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Utah Senate80%80%— bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Utah Senate80%Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Utah Senate
80%
80%
— bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Utah Senate
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Utah Senate
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $3K
Arizona House50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askArizona House50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Arizona House
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Arizona House
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Arizona Senate50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askArizona Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Arizona Senate
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Arizona Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Florida Senate50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askFlorida Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Florida Senate
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Florida Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Georgia Senate50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askGeorgia Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Georgia Senate
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Georgia Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Idaho Senate50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askIdaho Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Idaho Senate
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Idaho Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Idaho SenateKalshi: “Iowa Senate”50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askIdaho Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Idaho Senate
Kalshi: “Iowa Senate”
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Idaho Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Iowa House50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askIowa House50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Iowa House
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Iowa House
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Missouri House50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askMissouri House50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Missouri House
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Missouri House
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Montana Senate50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askMontana Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Montana Senate
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Montana Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Montana SenateKalshi: “Missouri Senate”50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askMontana Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Montana Senate
Kalshi: “Missouri Senate”
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Montana Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Missouri Senate
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
New Hampshire SenateKalshi: “North Carolina Senate”50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askNew Hampshire Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
New Hampshire Senate
Kalshi: “North Carolina Senate”
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
New Hampshire Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- North Carolina Senate
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
North Carolina House50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askNorth Carolina House50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
North Carolina House
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
North Carolina House
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- North Carolina House
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
Ohio House50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askOhio House50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Ohio House
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Ohio House
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Ohio Senate50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askOhio Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Ohio Senate
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Ohio Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
South Carolina House50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askSouth Carolina House50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
South Carolina House
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
South Carolina House
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- South Carolina House
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
Wisconsin Senate50%50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askWisconsin Senate50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Wisconsin Senate
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Wisconsin Senate
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wisconsin Senate
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
Florida House49%49%— bid, 98¢ askpolled, 1 min ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Florida House49%Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Florida House
49%
49%
— bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Florida House
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Florida House
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Texas Senate49%49%— bid, 98¢ askpolled, 1 min ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Texas Senate49%Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Texas Senate
49%
49%
— bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Texas Senate
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Texas Senate
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Kansas House16%16%5¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 1 min ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Kansas House16%Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kansas House
16%
16%
5¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kansas House
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas House
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $1K
New Hampshire Senate12%12%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askNew Hampshire Senate12%Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min ago
New Hampshire Senate
12%
12%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
New Hampshire Senate
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Hampshire Senate
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $100
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arizona Secretary of State, Florida Division of Elections, Georgia Secretary of State
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Utah Senate
- Arizona House
- Arizona Senate
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?". Utah Senate leads at 80%. Next is Arizona House at 50%. $4K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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