The Prediction Markets

Where will Trump and Putin next meet?

Closes
Jan 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$237K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

No meeting by December 31, 2027 78%

Next is China at 56.6%. The venues differ most on China (Polymarket 1.9%, Kalshi 87%), a 85-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No meeting by December 31, 2027
78%
Polymarket 78%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
No meeting by December 31, 2027
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
ChinaArb
56.6%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 23s agoKalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
China
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
China
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 87¢ nets 8370 bps before fees.

United States
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
United States
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alaska
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alaska
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
United Arab Emirates
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
United Arab Emirates
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
New York City
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
New York City
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Turkey
3.6%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 23s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Turkey
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Turkey
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Russia
3.4%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 23s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russia
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Belarus
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Belarus
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hungary
2.9%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 23s agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hungary
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hungary
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Show 21 more outcomes
Azerbaijan
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Azerbaijan
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Qatar
2.7%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 23s agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qatar
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Qatar
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$789
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

UAE
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
UAE
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ukraine
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Switzerland
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Switzerland
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
GermanyArb
1.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 23s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germany
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 260 bps before fees.

Brazil
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brazil
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Serbia
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Serbia
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Saudi Arabia
1.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 23s agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saudi Arabia
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Saudi Arabia
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$816
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Other - Middle East/North Africa
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Other - Middle East/North Africa
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Egypt
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Egypt
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kazakhstan
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kazakhstan
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Italy
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Italy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vatican City
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vatican City
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Finland
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Finland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
India
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
India
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Slovakia
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Slovakia
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Other - Europe
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Other - Europe
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Poland
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Poland
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Austria
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Austria
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Africa
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Africa
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy China on Polymarket at 3.3¢, sell on Kalshi at 87¢ (8370 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the New York Times, Bloomberg, Reuters
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No meeting by December 31, 2027
  • China
  • United States

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No meeting by December 31, 2027 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Where will Trump and Putin next meet?". No meeting by December 31, 2027 leads at 78%. Next is China at 56.6%. $237K has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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