The Prediction Markets

Where will Waymo operate before 2028?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Sacramento, CA 88%

Next is Detroit, MI at 81%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Sacramento, CA
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sacramento, CA
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Detroit, MI
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Detroit, MI
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$448
Trade this on Kalshi
Charlotte, NC
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charlotte, NC
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
Tokyo, Japan
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tokyo, Japan
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
New Orleans, LA
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Orleans, LA
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
London, UK
46.5%
Kalshi 46.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
London, UK
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Philadelphia, PA
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia, PA
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$91
Trade this on Kalshi
Minneapolis, MN
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minneapolis, MN
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
St. Louis, MO
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
St. Louis, MO
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Philadelphia, PA
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pittsburgh, PA
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Baltimore, MD
36.5%
Kalshi 36.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baltimore, MD
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Boston, MA
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Boston, MA
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Seattle, WA
34.5%
Kalshi 34.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Seattle, WA
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington, DC
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington, DC
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chicago, IL
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chicago, IL
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Portland, OR
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Portland, OR
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$534
Trade this on Kalshi
New York, NY
18.5%
Kalshi 18.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
New York, NY
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Toronto, Canada
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toronto, Canada
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Waymo

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sacramento, CA
  • Detroit, MI
  • Charlotte, NC

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Where will Waymo operate before 2028?". Sacramento, CA leads at 88%. Next is Detroit, MI at 81%. $3K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets