The Prediction Markets

Which 2026 movies will make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Dune: Messiah 79.3%

Next is Avengers: Doomsday at 38.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Dune: Messiah
79.3%
Polymarket 79.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 85.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Messiah
Last price
79.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
85.9¢
Sell Yes
72.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Avengers: Doomsday
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael
31.9%
Polymarket 31.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $216 (2.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
31.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46.2¢
Sell Yes
17.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$216 (2.16x)
Volume
$639
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: imdb.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dune: Messiah
  • Avengers: Doomsday
  • Michael

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which 2026 movies will make it into the IMDb Top 250?". Dune: Messiah leads at 79.3%. Next is Avengers: Doomsday at 38.5%. $13K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named movie is listed on the IMDb Top 250 Movies list by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie enters the IMDb Top 250 Movies list. The resolution source for this market will be IMDb (https://www.imdb.com/chart/top/). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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