The Prediction Markets

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$230K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Anthropic 75%

Next is Xiaomi at 55%. The venues differ most on OpenAI (Polymarket 14%, Kalshi 85%), a 71-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
AnthropicArb
75%
Polymarket 69%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 77¢ and selling on Kalshi at 78¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Xiaomi
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$853
Trade this on Kalshi
Google
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Google
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAIArb
31.8%
Polymarket 14%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 15¢ and selling on Kalshi at 79¢ nets 6400 bps before fees.

Z AIArb
15.4%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Z AI
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 22¢ nets 1760 bps before fees.

Tencent
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tencent
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
MetaArb
14.5%
Polymarket 9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Meta
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10¢ and selling on Kalshi at 16¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

xAIArb
11.8%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 16.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
xAI
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Moonshot AI
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot AI
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
AlibabaArb
7.9%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 700 bps before fees.

Show 14 more outcomes
MiniMax
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
StepFun
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
StepFun
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DeepSeekArb
7.1%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

NVIDIA
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
NVIDIA
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Thinking Machines
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thinking Machines
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mistral
5%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mistral
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mistral
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Baidu
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
InclusionAI
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
InclusionAI
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Microsoft
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Amazon
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amazon
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moonshot
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meituan
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
IBM
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
IBM
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
ByteDance
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy OpenAI on Polymarket at 15¢, sell on Kalshi at 79¢ (6400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: lmarena.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Artificial Analysis
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthropic
  • Xiaomi
  • Google

Live prices for Anthropic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?". Anthropic leads at 75%. Next is Xiaomi at 55%. $230K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More ai_tech markets

See all ai_tech markets