The Prediction Markets

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$35K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Proposition 3 94%

Next is Proposition 2 at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Proposition 3
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 3
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 2
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 2
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
90¢
Volume
$872
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 37
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 37
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 42
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 42
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 1
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 1
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 38
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, just nowBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 38
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 41
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, just nowBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 41
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$517
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 45
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, just nowBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 45
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 4
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 4
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 5
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 5
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Proposition 39
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 39
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 43
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 43
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Proposition 44
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Proposition 44
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Proposition 3
  • Proposition 2
  • Proposition 37

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which ballot measures will pass in California?". Proposition 3 leads at 94%. Next is Proposition 2 at 90%. $35K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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