Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Goldman Sachs 61.1%
Next is Morgan Stanley at 31.2%. The venues differ most on Morgan Stanley (Polymarket 36%, Kalshi 22%), a 14-point gap.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Goldman Sachs61.1%54.5%56% fair40¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 2 h ago67%68.4% fair65¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 2 h ago69¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Goldman Sachs61.1%Polymarket 54.5%(56% fair)polled, 2 h agoKalshi 67%(68.4% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Goldman Sachs
61.1%
54.5%
56% fair
40¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
67%
68.4% fair
65¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
69¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Goldman Sachs
61.1%
Polymarket 54.5%(56% fair)polled, 2 h agoKalshi 67%(68.4% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Goldman Sachs
- Last price
- 54.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 56%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $16K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Goldman Sachs
- Last price
- 67%
- Fair, margin removed
- 68.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $10K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
Morgan Stanley31.2%36%37% fair21¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 2 h ago22%22¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 2 h ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Morgan Stanley31.2%Polymarket 36%(37% fair)polled, 2 h agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Morgan Stanley
31.2%
36%
37% fair
21¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
22%
22¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Morgan Stanley
31.2%
Polymarket 36%(37% fair)polled, 2 h agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Morgan Stanley
- Last price
- 36%
- Fair, margin removed
- 37%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $10K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Morgan Stanley
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $7K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
No Listed Underwriter5.1%Not listed5%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)No Listed Underwriter5.1%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
No Listed Underwriter
5.1%
Not listed
5%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
No Listed Underwriter
5.1%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- No Listed Underwriter
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Citigroup0.6%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 h ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 h ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Citigroup0.6%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Citigroup
0.6%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Citigroup
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Citigroup
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Citigroup
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
Bank of America0.5%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 h ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 h ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Bank of America0.5%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Bank of America
0.5%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Bank of America
0.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bank of America
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bank of America
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
JPMorganKalshi: “JPMorgan Chase”0.5%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 h ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 h ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)JPMorgan0.5%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
JPMorgan
Kalshi: “JPMorgan Chase”
0.5%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
JPMorgan
0.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- JPMorgan
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kalshi
- Contract
- JPMorgan Chase
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
Barclays0.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Barclays0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Barclays
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Barclays
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Barclays
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $4K
Deutsche Bank0.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Deutsche Bank0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Deutsche Bank
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Deutsche Bank
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Deutsche Bank
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $9K
UBS0.2%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)UBS0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
UBS
0.2%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
UBS
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- UBS
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $4K
Wells Fargo0.2%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Wells Fargo0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Wells Fargo
0.2%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Wells Fargo
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wells Fargo
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $3K
Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Kalshi names the lead-left underwriter; Polymarket the lead underwriter. Both resolve 'no IPO' to a separate outcome by the same deadline.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: SEC EDGAR database filings
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Kalshi names the lead-left underwriter; Polymarket the lead underwriter. Both resolve 'no IPO' to a separate outcome by the same deadline.
- Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Goldman Sachs
- Morgan Stanley
- No Listed Underwriter
Live prices for Goldman Sachs
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?". Goldman Sachs leads at 61.1%. Next is Morgan Stanley at 31.2%. $82K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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